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Creators/Authors contains: "Nunn, Charles L."

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  1. Abstract Background

    Targeted surveillance allows public health authorities to implement testing and isolation strategies when diagnostic resources are limited, and can be implemented via the consideration of social network topologies. However, it remains unclear how to implement such surveillance and control when network data are unavailable.

    Methods

    We evaluated the ability of sociodemographic proxies of degree centrality to guide prioritized testing of infected individuals compared to known degree centrality. Proxies were estimated via readily available sociodemographic variables (age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, household size). We simulated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics via a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered individual-based model on 2 contact networks from rural Madagascar to test applicability of these findings to low-resource contexts.

    Results

    Targeted testing using sociodemographic proxies performed similarly to targeted testing using known degree centralities. At low testing capacity, using proxies reduced infection burden by 22%–33% while using 20% fewer tests, compared to random testing. By comparison, using known degree centrality reduced the infection burden by 31%–44% while using 26%–29% fewer tests.

    Conclusions

    We demonstrate that incorporating social network information into epidemic control strategies is an effective countermeasure to low testing capacity and can be implemented via sociodemographic proxies when social network data are unavailable.

     
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  2. Abstract Purpose of Review

    Preparing for pandemics requires a degree of interdisciplinary work that is challenging under the current paradigm. This review summarizes the challenges faced by the field of pandemic science and proposes how to address them.

    Recent Findings

    The structure of current siloed systems of research organizations hinders effective interdisciplinary pandemic research. Moreover, effective pandemic preparedness requires stakeholders in public policy and health to interact and integrate new findings rapidly, relying on a robust, responsive, and productive research domain. Neither of these requirements are well supported under the current system.

    Summary

    We propose a new paradigm for pandemic preparedness wherein interdisciplinary research and close collaboration with public policy and health practitioners can improve our ability to prevent, detect, and treat pandemics through tighter integration among domains, rapid and accurate integration, and translation of science to public policy, outreach and education, and improved venues and incentives for sustainable and robust interdisciplinary work.

     
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  3. Pauli, Jonathan (Ed.)
    Abstract Animals that depend on water sources in dry environments must balance their water demands with predation risk. In settings of water scarcity, predators may strategically exploit prey’s dependence on water; prey may adjust their use of water sources either spatially or temporally to avoid overlapping with predators. To examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of predators and prey at water sources, we studied the use of semipermanent waterholes in the dry season by red-fronted lemurs (Eulemur rufifrons), a primate species that exhibits flexible circadian activity patterns and inhabits a dry deciduous forest in western Madagascar. We hypothesized that lemurs avoid predators in their spatiotemporal use of waterholes. We analyzed the patterns of camera trap activations at waterholes by red-fronted lemurs and their two main predators: fossa (Cryptoprocta ferox) and Madagascar harrier hawks (Polyboroides radiatus). We found that red-fronted lemurs were unlikely to use waterholes at times of day when predators were commonly present, and that the distributions of times of waterhole use differed between red-fronted lemurs and each of their predator species. Red-fronted lemurs frequently used waterholes that were also used by predators within the same week in part because the predators used a variable set of water resources. In this system, predators did not appear to exploit waterholes for the high density of red-fronted lemurs attracted to them, but instead likely used waterholes primarily to meet their own water demands. Our findings suggest that when predators and prey share water sources, prey may adjust their behavior to reduce their risk of overlap with predators, including through avoidance of indirect cues of predation, such as waterholes at particular times of day. 
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